• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to footer
  • 020 3330 7010
  • marketing@allresponsemedia.com
  • E-mail
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
ARM logo

All Response Media

  • Home
  • About ARM
    • About ARM
    • Meet the Team
  • Our Services
    • TV
    • Digital
      • PPC
      • SEO
      • CRO
      • Social Media
      • Programmatic
    • Offline Media
      • TV
      • TV Execution
      • Press
      • Radio
      • Inserts
      • Door to Door
      • Outdoor
      • DRTV
    • Analytics
    • ARMalytics®
  • Success Stories
    • Client Success Stories
    • TV Star Competition UK
    • TV Star Competition NL
    • Our Work With Startups
  • Content Hub
  • Careers
  • Contact Us
You are here: Home / TV / 2023 TV market predictions

2023 TV market predictions

24th November 2022 by Helen Gray

TV is mostly traded on a supply and demand model, with revenue (demand) and impacts/viewing (supply) both determining price.

To be able to predict what may happen in 2023, we need to look at the factors impacting these, as well as the trends from previous years.

Inflation from 2019 to 2022

There has been a +36% increase in ITV adult station average price (SAP) since pre covid (2019 vs 2022).

From April to June 2020, the market saw some of the lowest CPTs, with the pandemic causing a steep decline in advertising spend and an increase in viewing as people were confined to their homes.

Towards the back end of 2020 and into 2021, advertising revenue started to increase again with Q4 2021 seeing an unprecedented amount of late money coming into the market.

Whilst viewing was up during the pandemic, from May 2021 this started to significantly decline both year on year and pre pandemic, as people were staying at home less.  This decline was also accelerated by a shift in behavior towards SVOD and other viewing services during the pandemic. This viewing shift combined with the revenue increases, created an inflationary market exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

Looking ahead to 2023

Tv viewing:

Across January to September 2022, Adult impacts declined by -18% versus 20. Whilst Q1 2021 was a lockdown period exacerbating this decline, we predict this trend will continue into 2023 albeit less pronounced at circa -12% year on year.

What 2023 factors will impact viewing?

Content and events

With the exception of the Rugby world cup on the BBC in the autumn, there are no major non annual sporting events such as The FIFA World Cup, Men’s Euros or Olympics in 2023 that would significantly impact viewing. ITV have announced there will be a Winter Love Island in 2023, which wasn’t in the schedule last year and will no doubt boost young audience impacts in January.

Other streaming services and viewing behavior:

ITV are launching their new (and free) streaming platform on 8th December replacing ITV Hub and Netflix basic with ads, which was launched on 3rd November. Despite these new developments, we could see audience decline slow down and stablise if SVOD growth slows with the increased cost of living, and the potential to see more people feeling the pinch and canceling subscriptions.

The graph below shows how impacts have changed over the last four years and how 2023 may look if the trend continues:

TV advertising revenue

TV advertising revenue has softened across the last half of 2022 with the rising cost of living crisis. H2 revenue was originally estimated mid-year to be c.-1% down year on year, however the latest estimates expect H2 TV advertising revenue to be down almost -9.5% on 2021.

SaleshouseH2 mid year estimatesUpdated H2 estimates
ITV0%-7.5%
C4-2%-14%
Sky-2%-8%

Categories that have seen the biggest declines across January – October year on year include:

  • Leisure equipment -68%
  • Online retail -46%
  • Retail -23%
  • Motors -28%
  • Government Social Political Organisations -17%

Catorgories that have seen growth January – October 2022 include:

  • Travel and transport +34%
  • Computers +26%

A lot of these categories were impacted in previous years due to the pandemic. For example, the leisure equipment category saw growth during the pandemic whilst people were confined to their homes, and travel and transport understandably witnessed massive declines.

2023 revenue is estimated to be c.-10% vs. 2022, following on from the trends in H2. ITV is expected to see the biggest decline at -12% off the back of a world cup year, however this is still up vs pre pandemic 2019.

YoY revenue

Whether supply or demand drops at the greater rate will determine if we see market driven inflation or deflation in 2023. If impacts decline faster than revenue, we will see inflation, but if it’s the reverse, we could see some deflation.

Our current prediction is that supply may decline at a greater rate than revenue, causing mild TV inflation at +2% to +3%.  However, whilst these numbers are purely driven on market mechanics, we believe there will be opportunities for horse-trading. 

Whilst not a ‘full buyer’s market’, given that ad revenue is predicted to be in decline, broadcasters will be keen to plug the gap, giving rise to value driven opportunities.

All Response Media viewpoint

Despite declining viewing, linear TV is still one of the most cost-effective ways to reach a mass audience. Commercial TV reaches 85% of adults in a week, whilst also being able to drive cost-efficient response KPIs.

In order to continue to get the best value from linear TV, it’s important to say nimble, follow the data to make sure we are maxisiming the most efficient channels, and leveraging the estimated broadcaster revenue declines to our clients advantage. Playing the late market in some instances will allow us to take advantage where late deals may arise.

Helen Gray
Business Director, All Response Media
Leeds Advertising Agency

The Future of CTV Advertising in the UK

How are online-born brands growing with TV?

Marketing effectiveness in the digital era

Get in touch today

Get a second opinion on your advertising investment. Find out how Europe’s largest performance marketing agency can combine data science with TV, digital and offline advertising expertise to drive business performance.

Contact Us Blog

Who do we work with?

See how one of the UK’s largest independent media agencies has consistently been building businesses and brands for over 25 years

See our success stories

Subscribe For More

Newsletter Signup

Footer

ARM logo

The Leading Performance Media Agency

Building businesses and brands by providing clients with an Unfair Competitive Advantage.
ARMalytics®

Get In Touch

London: Sutton Yard, 65 Goswell Road, EC1V 7EN
Phone: +44 (0) 20 3330 7000

Leeds: Marshalls Mill, Marshall Street, LS11 9YJ
Phone: +44 (0) 20 3330 8050

Amsterdam: Koivistokade 3, 1013 AC
Phone: +31 6 3761 9020

marketing@allresponsemedia.com

Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Modern Slavery Policy

  • E-mail
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Our Newsletter

Subscribe to receive exclusive media insights straight to your inbox. We respect your privacy.

Newsletter Signup

We are using cookies to give you the best experience on our website.

You can find out more about which cookies we are using or switch them off in settings.

ARM logo
Powered by  GDPR Cookie Compliance
Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful.

Strictly Necessary Cookies

These cookies are essential to provide you with services available through our website and to enable you to use certain features of our website.

If you disable this cookie, we cannot provide you certain services on our website and we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.

Analytical and Performance Cookies

These cookies are used to collect information to analyse the traffic to our website and how visitors are using our website.

For example, these cookies may track things such as how long you spend on the website or the pages you visit which helps us to understand how we can improve our website for you.

The information collected through these tracking and performance cookies do not identify any individual visitor.

Please enable Strictly Necessary Cookies first so that we can save your preferences!

Advertising and Targeting Cookies

These cookies are used to show advertising that is likely to be of interest to you based on your browsing habits.

These cookies, as served by our content and/or advertising providers, may combine information they collected from our website with other information they have independently collected relating to your web browser's activities across their network of websites.

If you choose to remove or disable these targeting or advertising cookies, you will still see adverts but they may not be relevant to you.

Please enable Strictly Necessary Cookies first so that we can save your preferences!

Cookie Policy

More information about our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy